| 严茂林1,周觉2，田恬1，吴媛媛1，赵灿1，张洋3.中国油料自给率及其影响因素研究[J].中国油脂,2025,50(11):.[YAN Maolin1, ZHOU Jue2, TIAN Tian1, WU Yuanyuan1, ZHAO Can1, ZHANG Yang3.China′s oilseeds self-sufficiency rate and its influencing factors[J].China Oils and Fats,2025,50(11):.] |
| 中国油料自给率及其影响因素研究 |
| China′s oilseeds self-sufficiency rate and its influencing factors |
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出版日期：2025-11-20
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.240582 |
| 中文关键词: 油料 自给率 显性净进口 隐性净进口 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词:oilseeds self-sufficiency rate explicit net import implicit net import influencing factors |
| 基金项目:农业农村部财政经费项目（JGHX202008）；国家林业和草原局管理干部学院重点项目（202308） |
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| Author Name | Affiliation | | YAN Maolin1, ZHOU Jue2, TIAN Tian1, WU Yuanyuan1, ZHAO Can1, ZHANG Yang3 | 1.National Academy of Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 102600, China
2.School of Economics
and Management, Beijing Information Science and Technology University, Beijing 102206, China
3.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 油料自给率是衡量油料产业安全的重要指标，对其进行科学测算有利于国家油料生产和贸易格局的优化调整。利用2002—2022年植物油料和食用植物油产量、进出口量等宏观统计数据，通过改进的自给率计算公式，对我国油料真实自给率进行测算，并利用灰色关联分析方法从生产端、消费端和贸易端3个角度对影响油料自给率的11个指标进行分析。结果发现：我国油料真实进口量已于2012年进入“亿吨”时代，油料自给率从2009年开始跌至40%以下，个别年份一度跌至约30%；生产端、消费端和贸易端与油料自给率均存在中等强度关联，其中，2个指标与油料自给率的关联度为高等强度，8个指标的关联度为中等强度，1个指标的关联度为一般强度。基于研究结果，提出显著提升我国油料产量、保障我国油料贸易安全、推动居民食物消费结构升级等针对性对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The oilseeds self-sufficiency rate is a crucial indicator for assessing the security of the oilseeds industry, and its scientific measurement facilitates the optimization and adjustment of national oilseeds production and trade patterns. Using macro-statistical data on vegetable oilseeds and edible vegetable oil production, import and export volumes from 2002 to 2022, China′s real oilseeds self-sufficiency rate was calculated through an improved self-sufficiency rate formula. Furthermore, it employed the grey relational analysis method to analyze 11 indicators influencing the oilseeds self-sufficiency rate from three perspectives: production, consumption and trade. The results revealed that China′s actual oilseeds imports surpassed the "100 million ton" in 2012, and the oilseeds self-sufficiency rate fell below 40% starting from 2009, dropping to around 30% in certain years. There was a moderate correlation between production, consumption, trade and the oilseeds self-sufficiency rate. Specifically, two indicators exhibited a strong correlation with the self-sufficiency rate, eight indicators showed a moderate correlation, and one indicator demonstrated a general correlation. Based on these findings, targeted countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to significantly increase China′s oilseeds production, ensure the security of oilseeds trade in China, and promote the upgrading of residents′ food consumption structure. |
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