| 曹冲，宋浩楠，姜丹丹.中国植物油料进口风险的多维测度与评价[J].中国油脂,2026,51(1):.[CAO Chong, SONG Haonan, JIANG Dandan.Multidimensional measurement and evaluation of plant oilseeds import risk in China[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,51(1):.] |
| 中国植物油料进口风险的多维测度与评价 |
| Multidimensional measurement and evaluation of plant oilseeds import risk in China |
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.240584 |
| 中文关键词: 中国植物油料 进口风险指数 对外依存度 市场集中度 国际市场占有率 |
| 英文关键词:China′s plant oilseeds import risk index foreign dependence market concentration international market share |
| 基金项目:安徽省科技创新战略与软科学研究专项（202306f01050039）；安徽省高等学校科学研究项目（2024AH053474）；2025年度安徽省高校中青年教师培养行动项目（YQYB2025026） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为确保中国植物油料产业链和供应链的安全性，利用2002—2023年中国植物油料进口数据，计算了中国植物油料进口对外依存度、市场集中度以及国际市场占有率，在此基础上构建了中国植物油料进口风险指数，并对其风险分区进行了划分。同时，通过分析中国植物油料进口风险，提出了相应的政策建议。分析发现：中国植物油料进口对外依存度呈现先波动上升后在较高水平上波动下降的趋势，从2009年以后由此引发的进口风险一直处于高或极高风险区；中国植物油料进口市场集中度则在高水平上呈现波动缓慢下降的趋势，相应的进口风险一直处于极高风险区；中国植物油料进口国际市场占有率则呈现快速上升的趋势，从2012年以后由此导致的进口风险同样处于极高风险区；基于多维度构建的中国植物油料进口风险指数从2012年以后始终处于极高风险区。基于此，提出了深入推进植物油料产能提升工程、优化植物油料的进口布局与政策设计、推动植物油料进口来源多元化与合理化的政策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to ensure the safety of China′s plant oilseeds industry chain and supply chain, using the data of China′s plant oilseeds imports from 2002 to 2023, the foreign dependence, market concentration and international market share of China′s plant oilseeds imports were calculated, and on this basis, the risk index of China′s plant oilseeds imports was constructed and its risk zones were divided. At the same time, through the analysis of the import risk of China′s plant oilseeds, corresponding policy suggestions were put forward. The analysis founded that China′s foreign dependence on plant oilseeds imports showed a trend of first rising with fluctuations and then falling with fluctuations at a relatively high level, and the corresponding import risk was in a high or extremely high-risk zone since 2009. The market concentration showed a trend of slowly declining with fluctuations at a high level, and the corresponding import risk was always in the extremely high-risk zone. The international market share showed a rapid upward trend, and the import risk caused by it since 2012 was also in the extremely high-risk zone. Based on the multidimensional risk index of China′s plant oilseeds imports, it had been in an extremely high-risk zone since 2012. Based on this, some policy suggestions were put forward, such as further promoting the project of increasing the production capacity of plant oilseeds, optimizing the import layout and policy design of plant oilseeds, and promoting the diversification and rationalization of plant oilseeds import sources. |
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