| 张融存1， 崔海兴1， 郑风田1， 喻志军2， 张曼1.大食物观下我国木本油料的增产潜力与实现路径[J].中国油脂,2026,52(2):.[ZHANG Rongcun1， CUI Haixing1， ZHENG Fengtian1， YU Zhijun2， ZHANG Man1.China′s woody oilseeds production increase potential and realization path from the Greater Food Approach[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,52(2):.] |
| 大食物观下我国木本油料的增产潜力与实现路径 |
| China′s woody oilseeds production increase potential and realization path from the Greater Food Approach |
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投稿时间：2024-07-07 修订日期：2025-09-16 录用日期：2025-02-28
出版日期：2026-02-20
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.240426 |
| 中文关键词: 大食物观 木本油料 增产潜力 实现路径 粮食安全 |
| 英文关键词:Greater Food Approach woody oilseeds production increase potential realization path food security |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（71773137,71873139）；中国国际扶贫中心项目“中外乡村发展比较研究报告” |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 践行大食物观，发展木本油料，是有效缓解我国粮食安全中食用油安全问题的重要途径之一。以油茶和核桃为代表，从其历史供给和现实需求出发，分别构建常规生长、自然生长和政策支持三大情景，采用regARIMA模型，预测2025—2035年我国木本油料的增产潜力，并提出木本油料增产的实现路径与政策建议。结果表明：与草本油料相比，木本油料在长期收益、生态适应性和资源利用效率方面表现出明显优势，特别是在缓解耕地压力、优化食用油结构方面具有不可替代的作用；在大食物观政策驱动下，预测2030年和2035年木本油料总产量可分别达到1 348.97万t和1 628.03万t，若进一步加大政策支持力度，总产量可分别提升至1 666.10万t和2 270.70万t，对食用植物油安全的保障能力相应从2023年的2.24%提高至2035年的7.34%，显著增强国内食用油自给能力；木本油料未来增产潜力在于提单产、扩面积和降损失，重点在于良田、良种、良法和良机。为此，提出完善大食物观下“向森林要油”政策，依靠科技创新提高单产水平，立足资源禀赋扩大种植面积，提升加工效率降低榨油损失等建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Practicing the Greater Food Approach and developing woody oilseeds is one of the crucial strategy for effectively mitigating the issue of food security in relation to edible oils in China. Taking camellia and walnut as representatives, departs from their historical supply and current demand, three major scenarios of conventional growth, natural growth, and policy support were constructed. The regARIMA model was used to forecast the production increase potential of woody oilseeds from 2025 to 2035, and the realization pathways and policy recommendations were proposed. The results indicated that compared to herbaceous oilseeds, woody oilseeds demonstrated significant advantages in long-term profitability, ecological adaptability, and resource efficiency, playing an irreplaceable role in mitigating pressure on arable land and optimizing edible oil composition. Under the current policy framework aligned with the Greater Food Approach, the total output of woody oilseeds was projected to reach 13.489 7 million tons and 16.280 3 million tons by 2030 and 2035, respectively. With strengthened policy support, production could further increase to 16.661 0 million tons and 22.707 0 million tons, respectively, enhancing the contribution to edible oil supply security from 2.24% in 2023 to 7.34% by 2035, thereby significantly boosting domestic self-sufficiency. The potential for future production increases in woody oilseeds lies in improving yield per unit area, expanding cultivation areas, and reducing losses, with a focus on optimizing land, seed, practice, and machinery. Therefore, the following recommendations are proposed: to refine policies that "extracting oil from the forest", to rely on scientific and technological innovation to enhance yield per unit area, to expand the cultivation area based on resource endowment, and to improve processing efficiency to reduce oil extraction losses. |
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