| 张融存1， 崔海兴1， 郑风田1， 喻志军2， 张曼1.大食物观下我国木本油料的增产潜力与实现路径[J].中国油脂,2026,52(2):.[ZHANG Rongcun1， CUI Haixing1， ZHENG Fengtian1， YU Zhijun2， ZHANG Man1.China′s woody oilseeds production increase potential and realization path from the Greater Food Approach[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,52(2):.] |
| China′s woody oilseeds production increase potential and realization path from the Greater Food Approach |
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投稿时间：2024-07-07 修订日期：2025-09-16 录用日期：2025-02-28
Published：2026-02-20
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.240426 |
| KeyWord:Greater Food Approach woody oilseeds production increase potential realization path food security |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金面上项目（71773137,71873139）；中国国际扶贫中心项目“中外乡村发展比较研究报告” |
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| Abstract: |
| Practicing the Greater Food Approach and developing woody oilseeds is one of the crucial strategy for effectively mitigating the issue of food security in relation to edible oils in China. Taking camellia and walnut as representatives, departs from their historical supply and current demand, three major scenarios of conventional growth, natural growth, and policy support were constructed. The regARIMA model was used to forecast the production increase potential of woody oilseeds from 2025 to 2035, and the realization pathways and policy recommendations were proposed. The results indicated that compared to herbaceous oilseeds, woody oilseeds demonstrated significant advantages in long-term profitability, ecological adaptability, and resource efficiency, playing an irreplaceable role in mitigating pressure on arable land and optimizing edible oil composition. Under the current policy framework aligned with the Greater Food Approach, the total output of woody oilseeds was projected to reach 13.489 7 million tons and 16.280 3 million tons by 2030 and 2035, respectively. With strengthened policy support, production could further increase to 16.661 0 million tons and 22.707 0 million tons, respectively, enhancing the contribution to edible oil supply security from 2.24% in 2023 to 7.34% by 2035, thereby significantly boosting domestic self-sufficiency. The potential for future production increases in woody oilseeds lies in improving yield per unit area, expanding cultivation areas, and reducing losses, with a focus on optimizing land, seed, practice, and machinery. Therefore, the following recommendations are proposed: to refine policies that "extracting oil from the forest", to rely on scientific and technological innovation to enhance yield per unit area, to expand the cultivation area based on resource endowment, and to improve processing efficiency to reduce oil extraction losses. |
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