| 林大燕1,2，晋鹏淋1，王文亭1，毛艺漩1.中国大豆进口风险与进口来源布局优化研究[J].中国油脂,2026,51(4):.[LIN Dayan1,2, JIN Penglin1, WANG Wenting1, MAO Yixuan1.Import risks and optimization of import source distribution of soybean in China[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,51(4):.] |
| 中国大豆进口风险与进口来源布局优化研究 |
| Import risks and optimization of import source distribution of soybean in China |
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.250054 |
| 中文关键词: 进口风险 大豆 来源布局 |
| 英文关键词:import risks soybean source distribution |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金专项项目(72442023)；国家自然科学基金青年项目(72403118，42201295) |
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| Author Name | Affiliation | | LIN Dayan1,2, JIN Penglin1, WANG Wenting1, MAO Yixuan1 | 1.School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094,
China
2.International Economy and Trade Research Center, Nanjing University of Science and
Technology, Nanjing 210094, China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 旨在为降低中国大豆进口风险，保障大豆充足稳定供给提供参考，在系统测算2001—2020年中国大豆进口风险的基础上，进一步通过非线性规划模型，以进口风险最小为目标求解中国大豆最优进口来源布局，并据此构建具体优化方案。结果显示，2001—2020年中国大豆进口风险总体呈波动上升趋势，且主要来自巴西、美国和阿根廷，风险主要在于政治风险、运输风险和依赖性风险。尽管加拿大、俄罗斯和乌拉圭存在较高的资源风险和价格波动风险，但因其依赖性风险、运输风险和政治风险很低，反而可以成为中国大豆进口来源的重要补充。2001—2020年中国自六大主要来源国的大豆实际进口总量均超过各自的最优水平，其中巴西大豆的进口规模显著偏高，表明进口来源布局过于集中，加剧了大豆整体进口风险。若根据最优水平优化调整中国大豆进口来源布局，则中国大豆进口风险可降低15%～80%。由此，提出提升国内大豆产能、优化进口来源布局、签订长期采购协议、建立动态储备机制、共建大豆产能、整合产业链以及提升物流效率等优化建议，重点强化与加拿大、俄罗斯、乌拉圭等新兴来源国的合作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Aiming to provide a reference for reducing China′s soybean import risks and ensure a sufficient and stable supply of soybean, on the basis of systematic calculation of China′s soybean import risks from 2001 to 2020, the optimal import source distribution of China′s soybean under the objective of minimum import risk was solved by a nonlinear programming model, and the optimization scheme of soybean import source distribution in China was put forward accordingly. The results showed that China′s soybean import risks generally showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, primarily originating from Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, and the main risk included political risk, tranportation risk and dependency risk. Canada, Russia and Uruguay had relatively high resource risks and price fluctuation risk, but due to their low dependency risk, transportation risk and political risk, they could be important supplements to China′s soybean import sources. During this period, China′s actual total import of soybean from the six major source countries all exceeded their respective optimal levels. Among them, the import volume of soybean from Brazil was significantly higher, indicating that the layout of import sources was overly concentrated, which exacerbated the overall import risk of soybean. If the distribution of China′s soybean import source was optimized according to the optimal levels, the risks of China′s soybean import can be reduced by 15% to 80%. Based on this, optimization suggestions are proposed, such as increasing domestic soybean production capacity, optimizing the layout of import sources, signing long-term procurement agreements, establishing a dynamic reserve mechanism, jointly building soybean production capacity, integrating the industrial chain to improve logistics efficiency, and focusing on strengthening cooperation with emerging source countries such as Canada, Russia, and Uruguay. |
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