| 周伦政1，王雨涵2.“十五五”期间我国大豆增产潜力与路径[J].中国油脂,2026,51(4):.[ZHOU Lunzheng1，WANG Yuhan2.Soybean production potential and path in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,51(4):.] |
| “十五五”期间我国大豆增产潜力与路径 |
| Soybean production potential and path in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period |
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.250389 |
| 中文关键词: 大豆 增产潜力 粮食安全 “十五五”时期 |
| 英文关键词:soybean production potential food security the 15th Five -Year Plan period |
| 基金项目:江西省职业早期青年科技人才培养专项项目（20252BEJ730156）;江西省科学技术协会项目（20250206） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 大豆是我国消费和进口最多的油料，随着大豆需求量增长，保持其稳产增产，对确保我国粮食安全具有重要现实意义。为系统评估“十五五”期间我国大豆的增产潜力并探索其实现路径，剖析了“十四五”期间我国大豆的产业现状与核心增产要素。在此基础上，根据“十四五”期间大豆生产面临的形势，采用自回归差分移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测“十五五”期间我国大豆播种面积与单产，并提出我国大豆增产的实现路径。结果表明：“十四五”期间（2021—2024年），我国大豆播种面积明显上升，单产增幅略减，产量总体呈现增长趋势；通过分析我国大豆核心增产要素，发现适种土壤肥力是大豆增产的物质基础，现代农业技术是大豆增产的推动因素，种植收益水平是大豆增产的关键激励，国家政策措施是大豆增产的稳定保障，绿色化和数字化是大豆持续发展的关键方向；经预测，2030年我国大豆产量为2 193万t，比2025年增加49万t。为实现增产目标，提出需确保种植面积不低于1 000万hm2，力争全国2/3的大豆产自高标准农田，着力解决大豆种源自主化和单产提升困难两大技术难题，通过完善政策保障机制，稳定大豆市场收益预期等建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Soybean is the most consumed and imported oilseed in China. With the growing demand for soybean, maintaining and increasing its stable production is of significant practical importance for ensuring China′s food security. To systematically assess the production potential of Chinese soybean during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and explore pathways to achieve it, the industrial status and core production-increasing factors of Chinese soybean during the 14th Five-Year Plan period were analyzed. Based on this and considering the production situation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the ARIMA model was used to forecast the sown area and yield per unit area of soybean in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and pathways to increase soybean production were proposed. The results showed that during the 14th-Five Year Plan period (2021-2024), China′s soybean sown area increased significantly, while the increase rate of yield per unit area slightly declined, leading to an overall upward trend in production. Analysis of core production-increasing factors revealed that soil fertility in suitable cultivation areas was the material foundation for yield increase, modern agricultural technology was the driving factor, planting profit level was the key incentive, national policy measures were the stable guarantee, and greening and digitalization were crucial directions for sustainable development of soybean. The forecast indicated that China′s soybean production will reach 21.93 million tons in 2030, an increase of 0.49 million tons from 2025. To achieve this production growth target, it is proposed to ensure a sown area of no less than 10 million hectares, strive for two-thirds of national soybean production to come from high-standard farmland, focus on solving the two major technical challenges of achieving seed self-sufficiency and increasing yield per unit area, and stabilize soybean market profit expectations by improving policy guarantee mechanisms. |
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