| 候杰，李涛.中国植物油进口贸易效率与潜力研究
——基于随机前沿引力模型[J].中国油脂,2026,51(6):.[HOU Jie, LI Tao.Research on the efficiency and potential of China′s plant oil import trade： Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,51(6):.] |
| 中国植物油进口贸易效率与潜力研究
——基于随机前沿引力模型 |
| Research on the efficiency and potential of China′s plant oil import trade： Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model |
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投稿时间：2025-04-27 修订日期：2026-01-29 录用日期：2025-05-30
出版日期：2026-06-20
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.250221 |
| 中文关键词: 植物油进口贸易 随机前沿引力模型 贸易效率 贸易潜力 |
| 英文关键词:plant oil import trade stochastic frontier gravity model trade efficiency trade potential |
| 基金项目:2025年度新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题（2025ZJFLTD11）；2025年新疆战略人才培养计划“新疆特需专业化人才项目” |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国作为全球植物油进口贸易大国之一，面对国际供应链韧性不足、质量安全风险加剧等现实挑战，亟需提升植物油进口效率，推动进口贸易高质量发展，以保障国家粮油安全战略目标的实现。基于2012—2023年中国植物油进口贸易额排名前15的国家面板数据，采用随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型探究中国植物油进口贸易的影响因素，并测算中国植物油进口贸易效率与潜力。结果表明：GDP、人口规模、通货膨胀率、政府效能、物流绩效水平、经济自由度、汇率等因素对中国植物油进口贸易效率具有显著影响；中国植物油进口贸易效率均值仅约为0.2，整体进口贸易效率偏低但逐年递增，发展中国家贸易效率的增长幅度高于发达国家；中国从15个国家进口植物油不存在饱和型市场，对各国植物油进口贸易效率和潜力存在巨大差异，有较大的提升空间。因此，提出加速人民币国际化进程以降低汇率波动风险，增加替代性油品进口以优化植物油进口贸易结构，因国制宜制定合作方案以差异化提升进口贸易效率等建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As one of the world′s major importers of plant oil, China urgently needs to enhance the efficiency of plant oil imports and promote high-quality development of import trade in the face of challenges such as insufficient resilience of the international supply chain and increasing risks to quality safety, in order to ensure the achievement of national grain and oil security strategic goals. Based on the panel data of the top 15 countries in terms of China′s plant oil import trade value from 2012 to 2023, the stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model were used to explore the influencing factors of China′s plant oil import trade and to measure the efficiency and potential of China′s plant oil import trade. The results showed that factors such as GDP, population size, inflation rate, government effectiveness, logistics performance level, economic freedom, and exchange rate had a significant impact on the efficiency of China′s plant oil import trade. The average efficiency of China′s plant oil import trade was only 0.2. The overall efficiency of import trade was relatively low but had been increasing year by year. The growth rate of trade efficiency in developing countries was higher than that in developed countries. China′s plant oil import trade from the 15 countries had not reached a saturated market, and there were significant differences in the efficiency and potential of plant oil import trade with each country, leaving considerable room for improvement. Therefore, suggestions such as accelerating the internationalization of the RMB to reduce exchange rate fluctuation risks, optimizing the structure of vegetable oil import trade by increasing the import of alternative oil products, and customizing cooperation plans for different countries to enhance import efficiency differentially are proposed. |
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