| 胡青江1，2，魏贻斌2 ，李佳慧2.全球大豆油贸易网络时空演化及韧性特征研究[J].中国油脂,2026,51(7):.[HU Qingjiang1，2 ，WEI Yibin2 ，LI Jiahui2.Spatio-temporal evolution and resilience characteristics of the global soybean oil trade network[J].China Oils and Fats,2026,51(7):.] |
| 全球大豆油贸易网络时空演化及韧性特征研究 |
| Spatio-temporal evolution and resilience characteristics of the global soybean oil trade network |
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投稿时间：2025-05-15 修订日期：2026-03-17 录用日期：2025-06-26
出版日期：2026-07-20
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.250243 |
| 中文关键词: 大豆油 复杂网络 网络韧性 节点中心性 时空演化 |
| 英文关键词:soybean oil complex network network resilience node centrality spatio-temporal evolution |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目（2023D01C199）；新疆维吾尔自治区博士后资助经费项目（40120025）；新疆维吾尔自治区“天池英才”引进计划资助项目（ZX20230101）；新疆财经大学校级科研创新项目（XJUFE2025B006） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 全球大豆油贸易网络作为国际农产品贸易体系的核心子系统，其拓扑结构与抗风险能力对全球粮食安全具有重要影响。为应对全球粮油市场波动、提升我国大豆油供应链的韧性与安全水平，基于复杂网络理论，构建2013—2023年大豆油全球贸易网络模型，系统分析其演化特征与韧性表现。结果表明，大豆油贸易呈现出明显的“美洲出口-亚洲进口”格局，阿根廷、巴西和美国是大豆油核心出口国，印度为最大进口国。大豆油贸易网络的演化呈现出“先分散后重组”、节点间联系更紧密、网络效率提高且多元化的趋势；荷兰是全球最具影响力的大豆油贸易节点，德国、美国、比利时和意大利等国家长期在网络中占据重要地位。全球大豆油贸易网络主干结构不断丰富与拓展，呈现出以少数国家为核心节点、连通区域贸易集团的发展态势。大豆油贸易主干网络韧性评估结果揭示，2013—2023年贸易网络抗随机攻击能力提升，但对关键节点的路径依赖使其在蓄意攻击下仍显脆弱。基于此，提出实施“区域化多源供应”策略、依托“一带一路”倡议框架与区域枢纽国家共建油脂贸易走廊等对策建议，以促进我国在国际大豆油贸易中的合作，保障大豆油资源供应安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As the core subsystem of the international agricultural trade system, the topological structure and risk resistance of the global soybean oil trade network have an important impact on global food security. In order to cope with the fluctuations of the global grain and oil market and improve the resilience and security of China′s soybean oil supply chain, a global trade network model of soybean oil from 2013 to 2023 based on complex network theory was constructed, and its evolution characteristics and resilience performance were systematically analyzed. The results showed that the soybean oil trade showed a clear pattern of "America export-Asia import", with Argentina, Brazil and the United States being the core exporters of soybean oil, and India being the largest importer. The evolution of the soybean oil trade network presented a trend of "first decentralization and then reorganization", closer connection between nodes, improved network efficiency and diversification. The Netherlands was the world′s most influential soybean oil trade node, with countries such as Germany, the United States, Belgium and Italy occupying an important position in the network for a long time. The backbone structure of the global soybean oil trade network had been continuously enriched and expanded, showing a development trend with a few countries as the core node and connecting regional trade groups. The resilience assessment of the soybean oil trade backbone network revealed that the network resistance to random attack had improved from 2013 to 2023, but the path dependence on key nodes made it still vulnerable to targeted attack. Based on this, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as implementing the strategy of "regional multi-source supply" and jointly building oil trade corridors with regional hub countries based on the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative, so as to promote China′s international soybean oil trade cooperation and ensure the security of soybean oil resource supply. |
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