| 周晓亮.基于ARIMA模型的中国木本油料未来供给战略研究[J].中国油脂,2022,47(3):94~99.[ZHOU Xiaoliang.Future supply strategy of woody oilseed in China based on ARIMA model[J].China Oils and Fats,2022,47(3):94~99.] |
| 基于ARIMA模型的中国木本油料未来供给战略研究 |
| Future supply strategy of woody oilseed in China based on ARIMA model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: ARIMA模型 木本油料 木本油 供给战略 |
| 英文关键词:ARIMA model woody oilseed woody oil supply strategy |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573019）；农业农村部财政经费项目“中国食物与营养发展战略研究”资助（GJHX202008） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 粮油安全事关国计民生，大力发展木本油料产业、提升木本油总供给是提高我国食用油自给率、保障国家粮油安全的最佳选择。以油茶籽、核桃、油橄榄3种主要木本油料为例，利用三者2000—2019年的产量数据及前人研究进行测算，得出油茶籽油、核桃油、橄榄油3种主要木本油的同期供给量，建立ARIMA模型对我国这3种主要木本油料及木本油的未来供给进行预测。结合预测结果和国家既定发展目标，从我国木本油料产业存在缺乏优秀人才，科技支撑不足，产业结构不合理，生产加工能力弱，资金投入有限，宣传力度不足等主要问题出发，提出强化科技支撑，做好科学规划，加大政策支持，增加宣传力度等建议，以期为我国政府进行科学宏观调控、推动木本油料产业高质量发展提供数据参考与技术支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Grain and oil security is related to the national economy and people′s livelihood. Vigorously developing the woody oilseed industry and improving the total supply of woody oil are the best choice to improve the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil and ensure the national grain and oil security. Taking oil-tea camellia seed, walnut and olive as an example, the supply of oil-tea camellia seed oil, walnut oil and olive oil in the same period was calculated by using their production data from 2000 to 2019 and previous studies, and ARIMA model was established to predict the future supply of the three main woody oilseed and woody oil in China. Combining with the forecast results and the national development goals, starting from the lack of excellent talents, insufficient scientific and technological support in China′s woody oilseed industry, irrational industrial structure, weak production and processing capacity, limited investment and insufficient publicity, some suggestions were put forward, such as strengthening the support of science and technology, doing a good job in scientific planning, increasing policy support and increasing publicity, so as to provide data reference and technical support for our government to carry out scientific macro-control and promote the high-quality development of woody oilseed industry in the future. |
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