| 白丽，杨璇，李锐凯.中国核桃出口增长驱动因素研究[J].中国油脂,2025,50(7):.[BAI Li，YANG Xuan，LI Ruikai.Research on driving factors of China′s walnut export growth[J].China Oils and Fats,2025,50(7):.] |
| 中国核桃出口增长驱动因素研究 |
| Research on driving factors of China′s walnut export growth |
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| DOI：10.19902/j.cnki.zgyz.1003-7969.240351 |
| 中文关键词: 中国核桃 国际竞争力 CMS模型 出口增长 |
| 英文关键词:China′s walnut international competitiveness CMS model export growth |
| 基金项目:河北省现代农业产业技术体系干果产业创新团队（HBCT2024190401） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 中国是世界核桃主要的生产国和出口国，自2019年来，中国的核桃出口量和出口额稳居世界前三。为进一步发掘中国核桃出口潜力，在对中国核桃出口贸易现状分析的基础上，运用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数和显示性比较优势指数3个贸易指标对中国和其他5个核桃主要出口国家的国际竞争力水平进行比较，并采用恒定市场份额（CMS）模型对2013—2022年中国核桃出口增长驱动因素进行分析，并由此提出建议。结果表明，中国核桃出口整体呈上升趋势，其中：带壳核桃和核桃仁的出口额均呈波动式上升趋势，带壳核桃增长较快；带壳核桃的出口市场较少，主要集中在中亚，而核桃仁的出口市场较为广泛，主要分布在亚洲和欧洲。2018—2022年，中国核桃的国际市场占有率逐渐增强，贸易竞争力指数介于0~1之间且逐渐趋向于1，显示性比较优势指数大部分小于0.8，说明我国核桃国际竞争力较弱，但在逐步增强。CMS模型分析表明，竞争力效应是影响中国核桃出口的主要因素。基于此，提出我国应优化市场结构、扩大核桃出口规模，科学生产核桃、提高国际竞争力，发展核桃精深加工、延长产业链条等建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| China is a major producer and exporter of walnut in the world, and China′s walnut export volume and export value have steadily ranked among the top three in the world since 2019. In order to further explore China′s walnut export potential, based on the analysis of the current situation of China′s walnut export trade, three trade indicators, namely international market share（MPR）, trade competitiveness （TC） index and revealed comparative advantage （RCA） index were used to compare the international competitiveness level of China and other five major walnut exporting countries, and a constant market share (CMS) model was established to analyze the driving factors of China′s walnut export growth from 2013 to 2022, and some suggestions were put forward. The results showed that China′s walnut exports was generally on an upward trend, among which the export value of both shelled walnut and walnut kernel showed a fluctuating upward trend, with shelled walnut growing faster; the export market for shelled walnut was smaller, mainly concentrated in Central Asia, while the export market for walnut kernel was wider, mainly in Asia and Europe. From 2018 to 2022, the MPR of China′s walnut gradually increased, the TC index was between 0 and 1 and gradually tended to 1, and the RCA index was mostly less than 0.8, indicating that the international competitiveness of China′s walnut was weak, but it was gradually increasing.The CMS model analysis showed that the competitiveness effect was the main factor affecting China′s walnut export. Based on this, it is suggested that China should optimize the market structure and expand the scale of walnut export, scientifically produce walnut to improve international competitiveness, and develop deep processing of walnut to extend the industrial chain. |
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