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| Future supply strategy of woody oilseed in China based on ARIMA model |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord:ARIMA model woody oilseed woody oil supply strategy |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573019）；农业农村部财政经费项目“中国食物与营养发展战略研究”资助（GJHX202008） |
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| Abstract: |
| Grain and oil security is related to the national economy and people′s livelihood. Vigorously developing the woody oilseed industry and improving the total supply of woody oil are the best choice to improve the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil and ensure the national grain and oil security. Taking oil-tea camellia seed, walnut and olive as an example, the supply of oil-tea camellia seed oil, walnut oil and olive oil in the same period was calculated by using their production data from 2000 to 2019 and previous studies, and ARIMA model was established to predict the future supply of the three main woody oilseed and woody oil in China. Combining with the forecast results and the national development goals, starting from the lack of excellent talents, insufficient scientific and technological support in China′s woody oilseed industry, irrational industrial structure, weak production and processing capacity, limited investment and insufficient publicity, some suggestions were put forward, such as strengthening the support of science and technology, doing a good job in scientific planning, increasing policy support and increasing publicity, so as to provide data reference and technical support for our government to carry out scientific macro-control and promote the high-quality development of woody oilseed industry in the future. |
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