| Against the background of the continuous trade friction between China and the United States and the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ensuring the stability of oilseed and oil imports is of great significance to the security of China′s edible oil supply. The import dependence index, import safety evaluation model and export output elasticity were used to comprehensively evaluate China′s oilseed and oil imports.Thus, China′s oilseed and oil imports were comprehensively analyzed to seek a feasible path for import diversification.The results showed that China′s oilseed and oil had the risk of import dependence, and the lowest import safety exists among palm oil, soybean and sunflower seed oil, and the risks mainly came from Indonesia, Brazil, Ukraine. Combined with the export output elasticity, a feasible strategy for import diversification was to increase imports of soybean from Ukraine, Canada and Paraguay, rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia, peanut from India and Argentina, soybean oil from Russia, palm oil from Colombia, Honduras and Thailand, sunflower seed oil from Turkey. The level of China′s import security of oilseed and oil could be improved through the implementing the imports diversification strategy of oilseed and oil, increasing domestic production, building a double-cycle pattern and actively guiding the structural transformation of residents′ oil consumption. |
