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| 中国葵花籽出口贸易及潜力——基于贸易引力模型的实证 |
| Export trade and potential of Chinese sunflower seeds: An empirical study based on gravity model MA Xinyu, MU Yueying |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 引力模型 葵花籽 贸易潜力 国别化 |
| 英文关键词:gravity model sunflower seeds trade potential country-specific |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目（18ZDA074）；现代农业产业技术体系“北京市产业经济与政策创新团队项目”（BAIC11-2023） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 中国是世界最大的食用葵花籽生产国与出口国，把握其贸易特征及出口潜力对中国葵花籽产业发展具有重要意义。在对中国葵花籽贸易现状及特点分析的基础上，基于2001—2021年中国与19个出口去向国的面板数据，通过构建扩展的引力模型对中国葵花籽出口潜力进行了实证分析。结果显示：中国葵花籽出口具有高竞争优势，出口价格劣势情况逐渐得到缓解；出口去向国国内生产总值（GDP）、经济自由指数与农产品外贸依存度的提高，双边贸易距离的增加，两国人均GDP差异的缩小促进了中国葵花籽的出口；当前东南亚一些国家贸易潜力发挥不足，中东一些国家贸易潜力超标实现。基于此认为：中国应与国际农产品质量标准接轨，强化品牌推广与营养知识科普，开拓国内外食用葵花籽高端消费市场。同时，巩固加强与中东国家的贸易伙伴关系，借助《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）政策优势改善贸易环境，推动与周边国家小宗农产品的贸易往来。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| China is the world′s largest producer and exporter of edible sunflower seeds, and it is important to grasp its trade characteristics and export potential for the development of China′s sunflower seeds industry. Based on the analysis of current trade situation and characteristic of Chinese sunflower seeds, the export potential of Chinese sunflower seeds was empirically analyzed using an extended gravity model based on the panel data of China and 19 export destination countries from 2001 to 2021. The results showed that Chinese sunflower seeds′ export had high competitive advantages and the disadvantageous situation of export prices was gradually alleviated.The increase of GDP, economic freedom index and foreign trade dependence of agricultural products in export destination countries, the increase of bilateral trade distance and the narrowing of per capita GDP difference between two countries promoted Chinese sunflower seeds′ export. The current trade potential of some Southeast Asian countries was under-utilized and the trade potential of some Middle East countries exceeded the target realization. It is suggested that China should align with international agricultural quality standards, strengthen the promotion of branding and scientific propaganda of nutritional knowledge, and explore high-end consumer markets for edible sunflower seeds at home and abroad. Meanwhile, China should consolidate and enhance its trade partnership with Middle East countries and improve its trade environment with the help of RCEP policy advantage to promote trade in small agricultural products with neighboring countries. |
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