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| Risk dispersion and optimization of soybean imports for China： Based on substitution and dependence risks |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord:soybean imports substitution dependence risk diversification import sources optimization |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金项目“空间均衡视角下蔬菜跨区域供给、地区结构及供给效应研究”（71773121）；国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国粮食生产的水资源时空匹配及优化路径研究”(18ZDA074) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LIU Kai1, WANG Huan2, MU Yueying3 | 1.Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Beijing 100710, China
2.School of
Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China
3.College of
Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to disperse the risk of soybean imports for China and promote the diversification level of soybean imports, based on the theoretical analysis of soybean import risk, the import risk was classified and evaluated, and the nonlinear planning method was used to simulate and analyze the dispersion of the risk of soybean imports and the optimization of the structure of import sources. The empirical results showed that the soybean substitution elasticities between China and RCEP members and South American countries were 2.13 and 1.84 (relatively high), respectively. Due to insufficient soybean production capacity in RCEP members and soybeans from South American countries highly substitutes to soybeans sourced from RCEP members with a substitution elasticity of 2.29, importing soybeans from South American countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, could help reduce the risks of substitution. In terms of dependence risk, China′s dependence values on soybeans from Argentina, Canada and Russia were less than 1, therefore, the three countries were opportunistic countries with low import risks for China; the dependence values on soybeans from the United States and Brazil were greater than 1, therefore, they were risky countries; China′s dependence risk on soybeans mainly came from the United States and Brazil. China′s import sources of soybean still needed to be optimized. By minimizing import risks, China still had room to increase its soybean imports. Reducing soybean imports from Brazil and increasing soybean imports from other countries were relatively optimal. In order to ensure the security of soybean supply in China, it is optional to reduce the risks of soybean imports by increasing soybean production in China, actively engaging in import cooperation, encouraging enterprises to transfer agricultural investment to other countries. |
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