|
| Trend prediction and influencing factors analysis of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption of urban residents in China |
| |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord:edible vegetable oil urban residents per capita consumption influencing factor prediction |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573019）；农业农村部财政经费项目“中国食物与营养发展战略研究”资助（GHX202008） |
|
| Hits: 2125 |
| Download times: 1316 |
| Abstract: |
| The change trend of edible vegetable oil consumption of urban residents affects the overall consumption trend of edible vegetable oil of urban and rural residents. An in-depth study of its change trend and its influencing factors can provide a reference to China for formulating a scientific and reasonable grain and oil supply security strategy and related industrial development policies. Based on the datas of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption and influencing factors of Chinese urban residents from 2000 to 2020, a grey GM (1,5) prediction model was constructed from a macro perspective by using four main factors of urbanization rate, per capita income of urban households, urban edible vegetable oil retail price index and consumption habits, and the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents from 2021 to 2025 was predicted. The results showed that the absolute value of average relative error of the model constructed was 4.94%, which met the prediction requirements of the model. Applying this model for prediction, it was found that the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents in China would recover to over 10 kg from 2021 to 2025, with a slight growth trend. Coupled with the continuous growth of urban populations, China′s oilseed and oil imports would further increase. Therefore, policy recommendations was proposed, such as guiding the adjustment of oil consumption structure, strengthening quality and safety supervision of edible oil, improving the efficiency of edible oil utilization and eliminating waste. |
| View full text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| Close |
|
|
|
